EVALUATING STRATEGIC OPTIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY: SCENARIO PLANNING FOR A FAMILY-OWNED FMCG DISTRIBUTOR IN INDONESIA'S TRADITIONAL TRADE MARKET
Published:
2026-09-23Downloads
Abstract
Family-owned distributors carry much of Indonesia's traditional fast-moving consumer goods trade, yet they rarely appear in the scenario planning literature, which has grown up around large corporations with resources these firms do not have. This study applies Schoemaker's scenario planning process to a six-decade-old family distributor in Central Java whose margins have compressed steadily despite rising revenue, and whose turnover is concentrated in tobacco. Drawing on twelve semi-structured interviews, three years of financial records, and secondary industry data, analysed through hybrid thematic analysis and mapped onto PESTEL, Five Forces, value chain, and VRIO frameworks, the study isolates two critical uncertainties, the pace of distribution-channel evolution and the severity and pace of tobacco regulatory tightening, and constructs four scenarios to 2030. Six strategic options are then classified in a robustness matrix. Operational optimisation proves robust in every future; narrow digital tracking is a robust enabler; expansion, franchising, and exit are contingent bets keyed to particular scenarios; and preservation of the status quo is unfavourable. A regulatory stress test leaves the robust core unchanged. The study shows how a resource-light scenario method can discipline strategy in a family firm, and how insider research can be managed rather than avoided.
Keywords:
Family Business FMCG Distribution Robustness Analysis Scenario Planning Strategic OptionsReferences
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