THE EFFECT OF INFLATION, INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE ON INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
DOI:
10.54443/ijerlas.v5i6.3995Published:
2025-12-19Downloads
Abstract
This study aims to analyse the effect of inflation, interest rate and exchange rate on Indonesia's balance of payments by using annual data for the period 1993-2024. The method used is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) which is able to identify short-term and long-term effects simultaneously, and accommodate the characteristics of non-stationary time series data with different levels of integration. The results show that in the short term, inflation has a positive effect, while exchange rates and interest rates have a negative effect on the balance of payments. Meanwhile, in the long run, exchange rates and interest rates have a positive effect, and inflation has a negative but insignificant effect. The novelty of this study lies in the use of ARDL model with long data coverage and explicit separation between short-run and long-run dynamics, which has rarely been comprehensively discussed in previous studies related to the balance of payments in Indonesia. The government's role is required to maintain price and interest rate stability through adaptive exchange rate management in order to maintain Indonesia's balance of payments.
References
Awagi, D., Sujianto, A. E., Fitriana, L., Roisatin, E. N., & Wardani, C. E. R. (2024). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor,
Inflasi, dan Suku Bunga terhadap Neraca Pembayaran di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi, Akuntansi dan
Manajemen, 3(1) 150-160.
Boediono. (1998). Teori Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. Yogyakarta: BPFE
Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., & Startz, R. (2014). Makroekonomi (Edisi ke-11). Erlangga.
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Hakeem, A. O., Hussein, S. I., & Abass, S. I. (2018). Exchange Rate, Inflation and the Nigerian Balance of
Payment. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 9(3) 10-16.
Hutagalung, S. A., Rahmadana, M. F., Nasir, M., & Rinaldi, M. (2019). Analysis of The Effect of Gross Domestic
Product, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on Balance of Payments in Indonesia. Advances in Social Sciences
Research Journal, 6(10) 361-374.
Juhro, S. M., & Goeltom, M. S. (2022). Makroekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter di Indonesia. Bank Indonesia
Institute.
Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2018). International economics: Theory and policy (11th ed.).
Pearson.
Lane, P. R., & Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2007). The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended
estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970–2004. Journal of International Economics, 73(2), 223–250.
Mankiw, N. G. (2018). Principles of Economics (8th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Mankiw, N. G. (2021). Principles of economics (9th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Mishkin, F. S. (2019). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (13th ed.). Pearson.
Nopirin. (2000). Ekonomi internasional. BPFE-Yogyakarta
Nopirin. (2012). Ekonomi Makro: Uang dan Perbankan. Yogyakarta: UGM Press
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships.
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
Rusdi Hidayat N. (2017). Pasar Keuangan Internasional. Jakarta: Penerbit Gramedia.
Salamah, R. A., & Wahyuni, K. T. (2021). Analisis Simultan Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia Tahun 2009-2020.
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, (1) 507-516.
Sukirno, S. (2010). Makroekonomi Teori Pengantar. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo Persada.
Sukirno, S. (2011). Pengantar Teori Makroekonomi. Jakarta: Rajawali Pers.
Sukirno, S. (2016). Ekonomi Makro: Teori dan Aplikasi. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo Persada.
Syahwani & Asty, K. I. (2020). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Neraca
Pembayaran (Studi Kasus: Negara-Negara Tetangga di ASEAN). Proseding Seminar Nasional Akuntansi,
(1) 78–94.
Uchechi, U. J., Iheukwumere, I. V., & Abass, I. S. (2022). Analysis of the Impact of Interest Rate on Balance of
Payments in Nigeria. International Journal of Science and Research Development, 1(5) 073-078.
Muhammad Multazam, Yusnidar, Ayu Anora, & Maisyuri. (2024). THE INFLUENCE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY, DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS, LOCUS OF CONTROL AND PARENTAL INCOME ON BEHAVIOR STUDENT FINANCE (Study on Management Study Program Students at Bumi Persada University). International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS), 4(6), 2048–2056. https://doi.org/10.54443/ijebas.v4i6.2303
Muhammad Multazam, Rico Nur Ilham, Muttaqien, & Ayu Anora. (2024). THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL FINACIAL INCLUTION ON THE SUSTAINABLE FINANCE OF THE MSME SECTOR IN THE LHOKSEUMAWE CITY REGION WITH MODERATION OF THE BANKING SERVICE MODEL. International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS), 4(4), 1231–1242. https://doi.org/10.54443/ijebas.v4i4.1883
Muhammad Multazam, Rico Nur Ilham, Ayu Anora, Muttaqien, Rahmiatul Aula, Ismuhadi, & Utaminingsih, E. (2025). BASIC INVESTMENT TRAINING IN THE CAPITAL MARKET FOR UMKM AND RESIDENTS OF HAGU BARAT LAUT VILLAGE. International Review of Practical Innovation, Technology and Green Energy (IRPITAGE), 5(2), 159–165. https://doi.org/10.54443/irpitage.v5i2.3484
Muhammad Multazam, Rico Nur Ilham, Irada Sinta, Muttaqien, Ayu Anora, & Yusnidar. (2024). DIGITAL FINANCIAL LITERACY TRAINING FOR YOUTH OF NORTHWEST HAGU VILLAGE USING CAPITAL MARKET INVESTMENT AND STOCK SAVINGS METHODS. International Review of Practical Innovation, Technology and Green Energy (IRPITAGE), 4(3), 301–307. https://doi.org/10.54443/irpitage.v4i3.2066
Muhammad Multazam, Rico Nur Ilham, Muttaqien, & Ayu Anora. (2024). THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL FINACIAL INCLUTION ON THE SUSTAINABLE FINANCE OF THE MSME SECTOR IN THE LHOKSEUMAWE CITY REGION WITH MODERATION OF THE BANKING SERVICE MODEL. International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS), 4(4), 1231–1242. https://doi.org/10.54443/ijebas.v4i4.1883
Muhammad Multazam, Yusnidar, Ayu Anora, & Maisyuri. (2024). THE INFLUENCE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY, DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS, LOCUS OF CONTROL AND PARENTAL INCOME ON BEHAVIOR STUDENT FINANCE (Study on Management Study Program Students at Bumi Persada University). International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS), 4(6), 2048–2056. https://doi.org/10.54443/ijebas.v4i6.2303
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Weri Weri, Nyimas Adheana Darnita, Asri Diana, Fitriyani, Diana Sapha A.H
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Downloads
How to Cite
