Regional Development Performance and Poverty Reduction in Aceh: A Panel ARDL Analysis of Regencies and Municipalities, 2010–2025
Published:
2026-10-15Downloads
Abstract
Poverty remains a persistent development challenge in Aceh, particularly given the differences in human development, labor market conditions, and economic characteristics across regencies and municipalities. This study examines the dynamic relationship between the Human Development Index (HDI), Open Unemployment Rate (OUR), and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita and poverty in 23 regencies and municipalities in Aceh Province over the period 2010–2025, with particular attention to short-run and long-run dynamics and the adjustment process toward long-run equilibrium. Using a quantitative approach, the study employs the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Mean Group (MG) estimators are compared, with the Hausman test used to determine the appropriate estimator, while the lag structure is selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The MG estimates show that HDI has a negative and statistically significant relationship with poverty in the long run, with a coefficient of −1.384952 (p<0.01). In contrast, OUR and GRDP per capita do not exhibit statistically significant long-run relationships with poverty. In the short run, lagged changes in GRDP per capita are negatively and significantly associated with changes in poverty, with a coefficient of −0.000299 (p<0.01), whereas changes in HDI, OUR, and current GRDP per capita are not statistically significant. The Error Correction Term (ECT) of −0.789703 (p<0.01) indicates that approximately 78.97% of deviations from the long-run equilibrium are corrected within one period. These findings contribute empirical evidence to the study of regional development by demonstrating that the relationship between development and poverty in Aceh is dynamic and heterogeneous, highlighting the importance of considering both temporal dynamics and differences across regions in understanding poverty reduction.
Keywords:
Human Development, Poverty, Open Unemployment, GRDP per Capita, Panel ARDLReferences
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